Data Analysis and Predictions related to Energy in the United States

Professor: Giri Narasimhan

Team: Marcus Horton, Poonam Gupta, Richard Jimenez and Rocio Alves Milho

Project summary: Our life today is very dependent on energy, whether that is to cook food, travel from one place to another or running life critical systems as in hospitals etc. In 2018, nonrenewable energy sources accounted for about 90% of U.S. energy consumption. The availability and pricing have a direct impact on all of us. In addition, all energy sources have some impact on our environment. Fossil fuels—coal, oil, and natural gas—do substantially more harm than renewable energy sources by most measures, including air and water pollution, damage to public health, wildlife and habitat loss, water use, land use, and global warming emissions. In this project, we have explored various aspects of energy: production, consumption, primary energy sources, emissions, air quality and its effect on economic growth, prices, health and mortality.

List of goals and questions we explored:

Study consumption of various fossil fuels and its impact on environment.
How does emissions from fossil fuels impact health and mortality?
Analyze the effects of consumption of fossil fuels on the quality of air.
To understand the relationship between energy consumption and GDP (economic mertic).
How does the consumption of coal in Florida for residential and commercial effects the prices of coal?

Datasets by source:

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), State Energy Data System and EIA
- State Carbon Dioxide Emissions Data - by fossil fuel type (XLSX , 70KB, 180 records ) and by sector (XLSX , 101 KB, 300 records)
- State Energy Data System (SEDS) - complete, CSV, 57.4MB
- Coal_price_in_the_commercial_sector_Florida
United States Environmental Protection Agency
- EPA ambient air quality monitoring data, CSV, 2.37MB, 37000 records
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME)
- United States Infectious Disease Mortality Rates by County 1980-2014, CSV, 534MB, 17850 records
Global Change Data Lab
- Consumption of fossil fuels,CSV, 525KB, 15600 records

Methods used:

ARIMA model for time series analysis
Linear regression model for relationships

Summary of results:

There is a direct relationship between the consumption of fossil fuels and CO2 emissions.
The CO2 emissions by coal is higher than that of natural gas. Thus indicating that Natural gas is a lot cleaner than coal.
There is also a direct relation between the consumption of fossil fuels and mortality by chronic respiratory diseases.
Texas is the top consumer of fossil fuels and thus also top contributer to CO2 emissions followed by California, Pennsylvania as the top three.
The mortality rate due to chronic respiratory diseases was increasing till about year 2002 and then has started decreasing.
The mortality rate due to asthma was increasing till 1995 and then has been decreasing.
There is a relationship between the consumption of coal and the price. As the consumption decreases the prices have decreased also.